Treasuries opened softer this morning, but Friday’s trading was nothing short of insane. Processing Content One thing happened, which did seem to make sense, the yield curve finally had a day of steepening, but that was about it. After opening weaker in front of a shockingly soft jobs report, the 5-year yield dropped 7+ bps […]
Treasury yields whipsaw as oil spike looms over Fed Read More »
Early market reactions to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict suggest inflation fears, not flight-to-safety buying, are dominating Treasury yields, a dynamic that could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. Processing Content Resolving the conflict swiftly and handling it in such a way that it increases security in the region could have some positive ramifications for housing, but
Middle East conflict stokes inflation, risks higher rates Read More »
In times past, an armed conflict involving the US would cause treasuries to rally, at least short-dated ones since they would be the beneficiary of a ‘flight to quality’ rally but $30T in debt may have changed that perception. Processing Content After the attack on Iran, not only have treasuries not rallied but the short
Why war didn’t trigger a treasury flight to safety Read More »
After treasuries opened this morning with sizable bullish gaps, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported headline Producer Price Index to be 0.5 % and Core Producer Price Index to be 0.8 % while both were expected to show 0.3 %. Purchasing Power Parity has not been particularly important during the current inflation conversation and today’s
Inflation runs hot as producer price index surges Read More »
Rising refinance recapture and a widening split in borrower performance are redefining the servicing outlook, speakers at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Dallas said Wednesday. Processing Content The latter, which has stemmed from what’s been referred to as a K-shaped economy, is “a tale of a few stories or maybe substories,” Joel Kan, deputy
Recapture rate is up as loan performance splits: MBA Servicing Read More »
The 5-year yield dropped 12+ bps in the days leading up to the BLS jobs report only to give back most of the gains just minutes after that report showed much stronger job growth than expected. From there it dropped 12+ bps again heading into this morning’s CPI report, also compiled by the BLS, but
CPI relief sends 5-year yield toward breakout Read More »
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said the US central bank should hold rates at a “somewhat restrictive” level, as he expressed continued concerns over inflation that remains too high. Processing Content “In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer,” Schmid said Wednesday in prepared remarks
Fed’s Schmid says restrictive rates needed to cool inflation Read More »
The Federal Open Market Committee’s initial take on the economy in 2026 may temper NMN-surveyed mortgage professionals’ view that rates will fall fast and far enough to generate significant revenue gains this year. Processing Content Monetary policymakers weighed the balance of risks associated with a softer market vs. inflation in their widely anticipated decision to
What the Fed’s first look in 2026 means for mortgages Read More »
US consumer sentiment increased to a five-month high in January as Americans grew more optimistic about the economy and their finances. Processing Content The final January sentiment index rose 3.5 points from a month earlier to 56.4, exceeding the preliminary reading, according to the University of Michigan. The figure surpassed all estimates in a Bloomberg
Consumer sentiment reaches five-month high in broad gain Read More »
Treasuries slid as investors anticipated Friday’s December employment data and possible Supreme Court strike-down of tariffs that have improved the US fiscal position. Processing Content Yields across maturities were higher by less than three basis points after rebounding from session lows. US economic data showing improved productivity, weekly initial jobless claims near recent lows and
Treasuries slip ahead of jobs report, possible tariffs ruling Read More »