Bullish gap openings have sent yields back into Thursday’s ranges, the 5-year even back into the gap it left Thursday morning. Treasuries closed mixed on Friday as the yield curve, which has been in a flattening cycle all year, steepened a bit just as it’s doing this morning. Processing Content The flattening trade accelerated the […]
Treasury curve steepens after weeks of flattening Read More »
Some of Wall Street’s biggest bond-fund managers say financial markets are underestimating the risk that the US war in Iran will cause a sharp slowdown in an already sputtering economy. Processing Content As oil pushes over $116 a barrel and the conflict shows little signs of ending, traders have largely focused on the inflation shock.
JPMorgan, Pimco say bond market is misjudging slowdown risk Read More »
Weekly jobless claims were reported to be 205,000 vs the expected 215,000, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 18.1 vs the expected 8.3, so both were considerably market negative. Processing Content Treasuries had already opened with bearish gaps, the largest by the 5-year yield which began the day at its highest yield since 8/1, but even
Treasury yields hit months-long highs after FOMC Read More »
Treasuries opened softer this morning, but Friday’s trading was nothing short of insane. Processing Content One thing happened, which did seem to make sense, the yield curve finally had a day of steepening, but that was about it. After opening weaker in front of a shockingly soft jobs report, the 5-year yield dropped 7+ bps
Treasury yields whipsaw as oil spike looms over Fed Read More »
In times past, an armed conflict involving the US would cause treasuries to rally, at least short-dated ones since they would be the beneficiary of a ‘flight to quality’ rally but $30T in debt may have changed that perception. Processing Content After the attack on Iran, not only have treasuries not rallied but the short
Why war didn’t trigger a treasury flight to safety Read More »
After treasuries opened this morning with sizable bullish gaps, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported headline Producer Price Index to be 0.5 % and Core Producer Price Index to be 0.8 % while both were expected to show 0.3 %. Purchasing Power Parity has not been particularly important during the current inflation conversation and today’s
Inflation runs hot as producer price index surges Read More »
After strong showings on Friday, treasuries opened today with small bullish gaps carrying at least the 10 and 30-year yields through what figured to be strong resistance. Processing Content There has been no appreciable change in expectations for future rate cuts. I did see on Friday that there were doubts on Wall Street that the
Treasury gains face critical 5-year inflection Read More »
The 5-year yield dropped 12+ bps in the days leading up to the BLS jobs report only to give back most of the gains just minutes after that report showed much stronger job growth than expected. From there it dropped 12+ bps again heading into this morning’s CPI report, also compiled by the BLS, but
CPI relief sends 5-year yield toward breakout Read More »
In a bit of a surprise, to me anyway, treasuries followed up good days yesterday with bullish gap openings this morning. Processing Content Yesterday’s opening trades were the high yields for the day while the low yields were printed in the last 15 minutes. The 30-year finished the day with a bullish outside reversal and
Treasury yields plunge, dollar hits key technical targets Read More »
Kevin Warsh floated plenty of ideas for how he would run the Federal Reserve during his campaign for the job as chair. For Wall Street, few are as cryptic — or potentially consequential — as his call for a new accord with the Treasury Department. Processing Content Warsh has voiced support for overhauling the relationship
Warsh call for Fed-Treasury accord stirs debate in $30 trillion bond market Read More »