Oil prices are surging and mortgage rates are roughly flat so far today. It has been a crazy day in the bond market: the 10-year yield first went lower after the jobs report, then Trump posted that the goal in Iran is “ultimate surrender,” which sent the 10-year yield higher with oil prices over $90. […]
Negative jobs report keeps mortgage rates calm amid surging oil prices Read More »
In a sign of a still-softening labor market, U.S. employers eliminated 92,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Economists say the report is unlikely to change the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. Meanwhile, the jobs numbers for December 2025 were downwardly revised
Job market softens as US payrolls fall by 92K in February Read More »
The January jobs report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not be released as scheduled on Friday due to the partial federal government shutdown that began Saturday. The report will be issued once funding resumes. The shutdown was triggered after Congress failed to pass funding bills that include money for the
BLS jobs report for January delayed by partial government shutdown Read More »
Jobs Friday came and went without much reaction in bond yields because the labor market isn’t breaking, nor is it getting stronger. Mortgage rates dropped into the 5s for a short time on Friday as a result of Trump’s earlier announcement directing the GSEs to buy $200 billion in mortgage backed securities. The 10-year yield
December jobs data continues to support lower mortgage rates Read More »
The unemployment rate reached 4.6% today! Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve perceives current conditions as stable, allowing for a policy stance slightly above neutral since labor market deterioration has not yet occurred. Since late 2022, I have consistently argued that the Fed shifted its approach to maintaining a more restrictive policy throughout this cycle. I have
Why the Fed isn’t worried about the jobs data Read More »
Jobs week ended with an eerie silence, as the government remains shut down and we didn’t receive the last two major reports for the week. Given that job growth has been slowing dramatically this year, it’s time to examine what is really going on. For me, the situation is straightforward: over the past 24 months,
What we know about the labor market, even without Jobs Friday data Read More »
Mortgage rates have had a wild ride since Fed Chair Jerome Powell started talking at the Fed press event Wednesday, rising 15 basis points today. However, I think the bond market responded appropriately after the Fed meeting, and on Thursday morning. Why? Even though the Fed lowered rates, the tone of the press conference was
Mortgage rates go wild following Fed rate cut and Powell remarks Read More »
Mortgage rates have reached a new low for 2025, despite the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation being well above the target and showing a stronger increase in the core goods component. Why are mortgage rates at 6.27%? Jobless claims experienced a significant spike today, which suggests that the labor market may not be as strong
Mortgage rates hit new 2025 low as jobless claims spike Read More »
With the next interest rate decision from Federal Reserve monetary policymakers just over a week away, mortgage rates have continued their downward trajectory as many lenders and investors have priced in a cut. But the markets will need to navigate one more inflation report before the Fed’s Sept. 17 meeting. On Tuesday at HousingWire’s Mortgage
Mortgage rate declines are anchored to an expected Fed cut Read More »
The annual job revisions data was released today, which showed that 911,000 jobs that were supposedly created from March 2024 to March 2025 were removed from the books. The estimates were for 818,000 jobs to be lost in this report, so it came in worse than expected. Lower job growth has been a theme recently,
911,000 jobs cut in latest revisions. Is the Fed already too late? Read More »