Housing 2026 is off and going, and so far this year, with mortgage rates near 6% and mortgage spreads near normal levels, 2026 looks to be the first year of actual growth in existing home sales in years. Last week we had solid data in purchase apps and our weekly pending sales data — with […]
Housing demand is off to a solid start in 2026 Read More »
This is the final Housing Market Tracker article for 2025 and we’re going to tackle why the inventory growth rate has been cut in half this year. At one point, we had over 30% year-over-year growth, and that number is now down to 13.54%. Why is this the last tracker of the year? I don’t
Why did the growth rate of housing inventory drop by half this year? Read More »
As mortgage rates stay near 6%, our weekly housing demand data lines have improved so much that we are at multiyear highs in total pending sales and purchase application data combined. This shouldn’t be a shock for our readers because whenever mortgage rates break below 6.64% and head down toward 6%, housing data noticeably improves
Weekly housing demand reaches multiyear high Read More »
As mortgage purchase applications approach a three-year high, it’s vital to recognize the significant role played by mortgage spreads. Without the improvement in mortgage spreads starting in 2024, we would not have gotten mortgage rates below 6.64%, which spurred the last 18 weeks of positive data. The following analysis examines this data in detail. Mortgage
December housing demand near 3-year high as spreads improve Read More »
The month of December typically has the lowest weekly seasonal demand for housing, but it’s a big key to how the spring of 2026 will perform — if you know what housing data lines to focus on. Traditionally, I wouldn’t care so much about December housing data; however, post-COVID, the forward-looking seasonal demand data has
December housing data provides early signals for 2026 market Read More »
The housing market experienced a slightly positive shift mid-June and is ending 2025 on even more positive news. Existing home sales have shown four consecutive months of year-over-year growth and our total pending home sales data has just reached a multiyear high for this calendar week. By tracking weekly housing demand we can see that
Total pending home sales reach multiyear high with mortgage rates near 6% Read More »
Last week was a solid week for housing demand. Our weekly pending sales data increased by 15.36% year over year, and the Mortgage Bankers Association‘s purchase application data showed 31% year-over-year growth. In fact, if I average the last two weeks, purchase application data is up 28.5% year over year and our weekly pending home
Despite economic uncertainty, weekly housing demand up double digits over 2024 Read More »
Last week, housing inventory levels decreased noticeably, while our weekly pending sales showed a notable increase compared to the same period last year. Was the decrease in inventory primarily due to the seasonal decline in housing stock, or did the increase in demand contribute to lowering the inventory numbers? Let’s dive into this weekend’s tracker
Housing inventory falls as demand picks up Read More »
The unsung hero of the housing market in 2025 has been the improvement in mortgage spreads, because without the spreads improving as much as they have, mortgage rates would not have gotten near 6% this year. I forecast that mortgage spreads should improve by 0.27%-0.41% this year, from a 2.54% average in 2024, giving mortgage
Mortgage spreads hit lowest level in years, keeping rates near 6% Read More »
We had a nice pop in our weekly pending home sales last week, and with mortgage rates near 2025 lows we could ask: Is housing breaking out? Not exactly. One of the themes I really stressed this year is that weekly data can be volatile around holiday weekends. So we always look at the two
Weekly home sales look stronger than normal, but there’s a catch Read More »